You wouldn’t travel across town to save $.05 per gallon for a 15 gallon fill would you? Well, perhaps if ‘Across town’ matched ‘Across the street.’ But if you are talking about a 5 mile trip through traffic, probably not.
I’ve been hearing some ‘interesting’ arguments for, or rather against, some people’s pet peeves. Don’t like the idea that perhaps humans are contributing to something called ‘Global Warming’? Well, then it’s probably in your interest to publicly declare that you don’t listen to any scientist who notes that carbon dioxide is a green house gas, or that from the looks of things, just might believe that global warming is a problem. And while you’re at it, note that glaciers are growing, we don’t seem to be seeing an increase in temperatures over the past decade, and well, these things all go in cycles anyway.
I’m reminded of the guy who won’t get the dripping faucet in the kitchen fixed because the amount of water being lost in a year is less than the amount of rain that falls on his yard in an hour during a single rain storm. The loss is just not worth the effort to fix what he doesn’t think is broken.
The reality is that yes there are issues with what is being reported as global warming. Glaciers may be moving faster, but I have not seen any evidence that they are growing. If all that were affecting the size of glaciers were the amount of light and heat being radiated by the sun, then right now the glaciers should be growing. Our recent sunspot numbers have been going down, not just due to the fact that we are at a very low spot in the solar cycle, but also because the trend in the solar cycles has been lower as well.
One of the other things that strongly affects the global temperature, is the atmospheric albedo. That’s the indicator of how much light is reflected off of our atmosphere rather than passed through it to reach the ground. That indicator is very much affected by the atmospheric pollutants that are the result of burning various fuels and chemicals. Smoke is one word for it, but it’s also recognized as ‘particulate’ in that very often it is very small particles that are being carried into the upper atmosphere by updrafts and such.
But we put almost nothing in the air compared to a single volcanic eruption. Well, that’s true, but something else that’s true is that with the exception of shield volcanoes such as the Hawaiian Islands, nearly every volcanic eruption is a series of brief violent eruptions followed by long periods of idle time. We have college graduates this year who’s sole remembrance of Mt. St. Helens is the video footage and textbook material they may have seen in high school or on the History Channel. In another couple of years the same will be true for Mt Pinatubo.
Why do I bring up Pinatubo? Well, it’s an example of the type of effect you might see from a single volcano compared to the results of man made pollution. Pinatubo went off about the same time as the first gulf war was going on. If you were watching the oil well fires from the Kuwait Oil Fields at the end of the first Gulf War, you recall the plums of black smoke trailing off to the east. Within days of Pinatubo’s eruption you could actually watch the effect of amount of material being put into the stratosphere because it could be seen masking the plums from the oil well fires.
So, yes a volcano does put out significantly more material into the atmosphere than humans are.
The thing is, humans are doing two things that volcanoes don’t. We are putting pollutants and burning fossil fuels all the time, not just in brief eruptions every so often. And we are increasing our emissions every year, as opposed to volcanoes which generally put about the same amount of material out over time.
We also have another issue that will be cropping up shortly. While the US does burn more fossil fuels per person than any other country, we put less in the way of particulate matter than most other countries do. This has nothing to do with an interest in reducing green house gasses, or changing our atmospheric albedo. It has to do with the fact that this particulate matter tends to be bad for the health of the people around those places that could be putting it into the atmosphere. So our coal powered electric plants and our Iron foundries use ’scrubbers’ in their smoke stacks to pull that material out of the exhaust. As a result we see less Acid Rain and the like polluting our streams and rivers, and tearing down our infrastructure. We are not perfect by any means, but what we are doing is the result of social pressure on those businesses to help look after the health of the community.
Many ‘developing’ nations have not done that yet. So what will happen in when they do? I’m not sure. Perhaps the ‘problem children’ creating the pollution will be many other smaller countries. Or perhaps we will finally see the result of the increase in carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, as sunlight does interact with it.
Is carbon dioxide a green house gas? Well, an easy place to check would be to see what planets with higher concentrations of carbon dioxide experience. Any candidates? Well there’s Venus. It’s got loads of carbon dioxide in it’s atmosphere. Since it’s got lots of sunlight available, and all that carbon dioxide, it’s a prime place for plant life. Right? Well, not so much. Turns out plant life as we know it doesn’t much like temperatures hot enough to melt solder. Mostly because water does not work out very well at those temperatures, but that’s a different matter.
The math is out there. If the only thing that was ‘keeping us warm’ was the sun, then the temperature of the planet earth would be pretty much like the temperature experienced on the Moon. Averaging 107 C during the day, and -153 C at night, or -45 C over all. Two factors are at work helping the temperature on earth. First is the fact that our planet still has nuclear radioactivity happening keeping us warm. It does things like give us volcanoes. The other factor is that we have large bodies of water, and an atmosphere with a variety of gasses that respond in various ways to sunlight. Carbon dioxide is one of those, and yes it does behave as a greenhouse gas. That means that sunlight absorbed by the earth, warmed and re-emitted as heat, is absorbed by CO2 and on average, half of it is re-emitted back towards the earth.
Well, OK, so CO2 is a green house gas. But even the most pessimistic report is saying that the temperature is only going up a couple of degrees over a century. That doesn’t seem like much. I can’t see it doing things like raising sea levels, or melting glaciers…
The average temperature during the last ice age was only about 2 degrees cooler than the average temperature over the past 5 centuries. Yet that 2 degree difference was enough to sculpt the great lakes out of the North American continent. A 2 degree difference changes when the first and last freeze of the year is by months. And that is far more important to what is happening to glaciers and Ice build up than what the highest temperature day of the summer, or the coldest temperature day of winter is.
The thing is, I’m pretty sure that with where we are right now, there’s not a lot that we’ll be seeing that can be done to improve the situation. Nanotech might help strip carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. I can imagine it being used to build carbon Bucky tubes for space elevators or even just sheets of carbon. The problem is that as neat as such imaginative activities may seem, I’m not sure how long such a ’solution’ would take to materialize. And to tell the truth, I think that there is a lot of other things that will be happening first.
People talk about how we’re spending our children and grand children’s inheritance. I’m pretty sure that it will hit us even earlier. We may have caused an issue that we’ll be seeing affecting our standard of living in a negative way within our own lifetimes. I’m kind of hoping that things like nano-technology, and advances in computation and problem solving will result in a resurgence within our extended lifetimes, but I think we’ll have to take what we get.
From what I’ve been seeing, and hearing, the vast majority of the people who are claiming that global warming is not an issue, are sticking their heads in the sand. My suspicion is that they will be complaining about people saying ‘I told you so.’ But I don’t know. And while I think the evidence is there for what I suspect is coming down the line, I’m pretty sure that all that evidence is actually corelation, not necesarily causation. It’s entirely possible that even if global warming from our current state happens within our lifetimes, that the actual cause has nothing to do with humanity, other than possibly as Gia using it’s abilities to kill us off for our own stupidity.